Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry

Models for New Product and In-Market Forecasting and How to Use Them

Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex ’black box’ equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.