Russia After Putin: Ukraine, Syria, Relations with China, Beslan, Armenia, Stalin Lite, Magnitsky Scandal, Lavrov, Navalny, Russian Street Protests, European Union

As the United States reassesses relations with Russia and develops doctrine that addresses a turbulent security environment, Dr. Richard J. Krickus addresses a brace of pivotal questions that have a bearing on the future of Vladimir Putin and his Power Vertical. Are Putin's days numbered as many Russian watchers predict and what will Russia look like after he leaves the Kremlin? Toward this end, Krickus assesses four plausible scenarios. They include first, Status Quo, depicting the major geo-political features of Russia today; second, Stalin Lite that embraces most of the characteristics of a police state; third, The Western Path to Development that reflects pluralistic phenomenon associated with a "normal" European country; and fourth, Russia in Chaos, an outcome that anticipates the virtual disintegration of Russia as we know it today.

The plausibility of these scenarios varies with a move toward Stalin Lite most likely—some would argue that we are already there—a pluralistic Russia less so, and a Russia consumed in chaos least likely. In his assessment of all four outcomes, Dr. Krickus considers their domestic and international implications and dwells specifically upon what bearing they might have upon the capacity of the United States and Russia to collaborate in meeting common security problems: coping with international terrorism; stemming the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; and resolving violent internal struggles that have profound regional and international implications like the Syrian Civil War.

Dr. Krickus concludes that, in spite of many obstacles, the leadership in Washington and Moscow must find ways to address security threats of this nature even as the United States rebalances toward Asia. Moreover, he agrees with prominent statesmen like Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger that ultimately, Russia must be integrated into a Euro-Atlantic security system. The unexpected turbulent events of September 2013 that have resulted in a United Nations resolution compelling Syria to surrender its chemical weapons and to restart the Geneva negotiations to find a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian crisis offers evidence that a partnership, even if limited and fragile, is plausible. A major consideration of the U.S. national security establishment must be how to operationalize the partnership.