Everything Is Obvious

*Once You Know the Answer

Business & Finance, Economics, Planning & Forecasting, Management & Leadership, Decision Making & Problem Solving, Nonfiction, Social & Cultural Studies, Social Science, Sociology
Cover of the book Everything Is Obvious by Duncan J. Watts, The Crown Publishing Group
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Author: Duncan J. Watts ISBN: 9780385531696
Publisher: The Crown Publishing Group Publication: March 29, 2011
Imprint: Crown Business Language: English
Author: Duncan J. Watts
ISBN: 9780385531696
Publisher: The Crown Publishing Group
Publication: March 29, 2011
Imprint: Crown Business
Language: English

By understanding how and when common sense fails, we can improve our understanding of the present and better plan for the future.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to be driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.

Watts' argument has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

By understanding how and when common sense fails, we can improve our understanding of the present and better plan for the future.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to be driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.

Watts' argument has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

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