At Periscope Depth: Exploring Submarine Proliferation in Southeast Asia - Case Studies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam - Undersea Diesel Electric Subs, Philippines and Thailand

This excellent report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction. Submarine proliferation in the post-Cold War environment has led to an exponential increase in the number of regional submarine operators and begs the question: Were these submarine purchases made for deterrence, enforcement, prestige, or a combination of the three? This study compared the case studies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam, analyzed statements made by government and defense officials, and weighed each against the regional security environment to determine states' rationales for purchasing submarines. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore likely purchased submarines for deterrence and enforcement, and Vietnam for deterrence. The deterrence imperative for all states was relatively strong, but enforcement rationales varied; prestige lacked credible evidence as a rationale for submarine purchases. Future submarine proliferators, including the Philippines and Thailand, are likely to successfully acquire submarines when the deterrence or enforcement imperatives are strongest. These findings are significant because regional submarine operations that increase the potential for undersea conflict or accidents can be minimized if governments can reduce the threat perceptions of other states or find alternative, effective methods to enforce the maritime domain.

The purpose of the research that will follow is to explore why states decided to include submarine proliferation as part of their modernization endeavors. For the majority of states in Southeast Asia, the acquisition of submarines does not clearly follow patterns of status quo modernization and is a new asset in states' portfolios of weapons technologies.6 The significance for Southeast Asia with respect to submarine proliferation is that these acquisitions will likely force fundamental changes to defense policy that must consider the possibility of an undersea threat.

This study can shed light on the scholarly and policy debates regarding military modernization and submarine proliferation in Southeast Asia that have serious security implications. To this point, exploration and research into military modernization in Southeast Asia have weighted submarine acquisitions equally among the menu of technologies that have proliferated over the last two decades. Exploring submarine proliferation separately from other technologies, however, can provide insight into state behavior that might otherwise be difficult to ascertain under the framework of general military modernization.

This study will gather evidence from a wide range of resources to include reports from relevant conferences hosted by both academic and international institutions—e.g., ASEAN, RSIS; reports from non-governmental organizations (NGOs); journal and newspaper articles; think tank reports; working papers and op-eds; and relevant books. This study will not include human subjects because the scope of the research will not permit gathering individual data or soliciting opinions of foreign military members and government officials. The selection of the stated resources allows the research to cover a broad spectrum of information from both inside and outside government while simultaneously providing sufficient depth to answer the research question.