Advancing Strategic Thought Series: Defense Planning For National Security: Navigation Aids for the Mystery Tour, Black Swan Events, Clausewitz, Futurology, Strategic History

Nonfiction, History, Military, United States
Cover of the book Advancing Strategic Thought Series: Defense Planning For National Security: Navigation Aids for the Mystery Tour, Black Swan Events, Clausewitz, Futurology, Strategic History by Progressive Management, Progressive Management
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Progressive Management ISBN: 9781311353290
Publisher: Progressive Management Publication: May 3, 2014
Imprint: Smashwords Edition Language: English
Author: Progressive Management
ISBN: 9781311353290
Publisher: Progressive Management
Publication: May 3, 2014
Imprint: Smashwords Edition
Language: English

Defense planning unavoidably must be in the nature of a mystery tour. The inability to know the future is a permanent condition for defense planning, but it is one with which we must cope. This monograph by Dr. Colin S. Gray explores and examines the implications of our irreducible ignorance about the future. His purpose is to identify an approach to this critically important subject of security that leans heavily upon what we can and should know about the past and present, in order to anticipate future conditions.

The monograph finds that, although the past does not repeat itself in detail, there are profound persisting reasons why it is repeated approximately in the challenges and dangers that security communities must face. Dr. Gray concludes that notwithstanding the facts of contextual change in strategic history, the "great stream of time" from the past, through the present, into the future commands critically significant continuities in history that yield an approach to the future in which some confidence can be placed.

The purpose of this monograph is to explore and examine the challenge to America's defense planners of needing to make purposeful and prudent choices in military preparation for the future. The problem for defense planning that is beyond resolution is the scientifically certain fact that we have no data from the future about the future. Moreover, this will always be a fact. No matter the scholarly discipline and tradition to which a defense planner owes or feels most allegiance, he or she needs to recognize and attempt to understand fully a personal and institutional condition of awesome ignorance of detail about the future.

Further study, more cunning analytical methodology, even more powerful computers — none of these can reveal with any certainty what the future will bring. Fortunately, this does not mean that we are ignorant about the future; but it does mean that defense planning is guesswork and can only be such. Understandably, both senior policymakers and soldiers tend to be reluctant, even to the point of appearing to be evasive, when legislators question the plausibility of the answers given in congressional hearings. After all, it can be troubling to the conscience of honest and competent people to be obliged to affirm the integrity of choices made in defense preparation for national security in years to come, when there is and can be no certain way to know that one is sufficiently correct.

Although the future is always a tabula rasa concerning the detail, including vital detail, of what will happen, the human security condition is anything but unknown, let alone unknowable. A key to making progress here is to pose only answerable questions. For a leading example of a foolish question, one should never ask "What will happen?" Reliable answers cannot be given with the certainty required of science.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

Defense planning unavoidably must be in the nature of a mystery tour. The inability to know the future is a permanent condition for defense planning, but it is one with which we must cope. This monograph by Dr. Colin S. Gray explores and examines the implications of our irreducible ignorance about the future. His purpose is to identify an approach to this critically important subject of security that leans heavily upon what we can and should know about the past and present, in order to anticipate future conditions.

The monograph finds that, although the past does not repeat itself in detail, there are profound persisting reasons why it is repeated approximately in the challenges and dangers that security communities must face. Dr. Gray concludes that notwithstanding the facts of contextual change in strategic history, the "great stream of time" from the past, through the present, into the future commands critically significant continuities in history that yield an approach to the future in which some confidence can be placed.

The purpose of this monograph is to explore and examine the challenge to America's defense planners of needing to make purposeful and prudent choices in military preparation for the future. The problem for defense planning that is beyond resolution is the scientifically certain fact that we have no data from the future about the future. Moreover, this will always be a fact. No matter the scholarly discipline and tradition to which a defense planner owes or feels most allegiance, he or she needs to recognize and attempt to understand fully a personal and institutional condition of awesome ignorance of detail about the future.

Further study, more cunning analytical methodology, even more powerful computers — none of these can reveal with any certainty what the future will bring. Fortunately, this does not mean that we are ignorant about the future; but it does mean that defense planning is guesswork and can only be such. Understandably, both senior policymakers and soldiers tend to be reluctant, even to the point of appearing to be evasive, when legislators question the plausibility of the answers given in congressional hearings. After all, it can be troubling to the conscience of honest and competent people to be obliged to affirm the integrity of choices made in defense preparation for national security in years to come, when there is and can be no certain way to know that one is sufficiently correct.

Although the future is always a tabula rasa concerning the detail, including vital detail, of what will happen, the human security condition is anything but unknown, let alone unknowable. A key to making progress here is to pose only answerable questions. For a leading example of a foolish question, one should never ask "What will happen?" Reliable answers cannot be given with the certainty required of science.

More books from Progressive Management

Cover of the book Winged Shield, Winged Sword: A History of the United States Air Force, Volume I, 1907-1950 - Army Air Forces, Building Air Power, World War II, Building the USAF by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The Atomic Energy Commission and the History of Nuclear Energy: Official Histories from the Department of Energy - From the Discovery of Fission to Nuclear Power; Production of Early Nuclear Arsenal by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Interagency Fratricide: Policy Failures in the Persian Gulf War and Bosnia Crisis - Rational Foreign Policy Decision Making Findings, National Security Council, Developing Endgame, Termination Policy by Progressive Management
Cover of the book A Century of Air Power Leadership: Past, Present, and Future - Billy Mitchell, Mason Patrick, Douglas World Cruisers, World War II, Carl Spaatz, Tuskegee Airmen, General Bernard Schriever, Gulf War by Progressive Management
Cover of the book U.S. Army Attack Aviation in a Decisive Action Environment: History, Doctrine, and a Need for Doctrinal Refinement – Vietnam, Desert Storm, and Iraq War, Rotary Wing Attack, Technology and Sky Cavalry by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Blending Science and Art: Cold War Lessons for Strategy Development in Postmodern War - Chaoplexic Warfare, Paradigms, Perceptions and Interpretation of Information (PPI), Rational Actor Model (RAM) by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Cold War Infrastructure for Air Defense: The Fighter and Command Missions - SAC, ADC, ANG, TAC, SAGE, Alert Hangars, Simulator, Aircraft Shelters, Air Force Bases from Barksdale to Whiteman by Progressive Management
Cover of the book U.S. Customs and Border Protection Cybersecurity Strategy: Enabling the Mission Through Secure Technology - Engaging the Workforce in the Broader Cybersecurity Vision by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 20th Century NASA Space History: Mir Mission Chronicle - Modules, Configuration Changes, Major Events of the Russian/Soviet Space Station by Progressive Management
Cover of the book First Among Equals: The Selection of NASA Space Science Experiments - Origins of NASA, Early Satellites, Webb's Influence on Science (NASA SP-4215) by Progressive Management
Cover of the book Air Force Doctrine Document 3-10, Force Protection - Terrorism, Threat Levels, Risk Assessment and Management, Khobar Towers, Natural Disasters, Base Security Zone (BSZ) by Progressive Management
Cover of the book What's in a Name: A Comparative Analysis of the United States' Real ID Act and the United Kingdom's National Identity Scheme - Combating Terrorism, Identity Theft, Illegal Work and Benefit Fraud by Progressive Management
Cover of the book FEMA Handbook for EMS Medical Directors: Stakeholders, Becoming a Director, Oversight, Dynamics, Staffing, Dispatch, Search and Rescue, Hazmat, Education, Standards, Best Practices, Ambulance Service by Progressive Management
Cover of the book 21st Century Pediatric Cancer Sourcebook: Childhood Liver Cancer - Hepatoblastoma, Hepatocellular Carcinoma, Undifferentiated Embryonal Sarcoma, Infantile Choriocarcinoma by Progressive Management
Cover of the book The Materials Genome Initiative: Developing Advanced and Next-Generation Materials, Computational Tools, Experimental Tools, Digital Data, Substitutes for Critical Minerals by Progressive Management
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy