Why Failing Terrorist Groups Persist Revisited: A Social Network Approach to AQIM Network Resilience - Capability of Al-Qaeda to Conduct Spectacular Attacks Across West Africa and the Sahel Region

This important late 2017 report has been professionally converted for accurate flowing-text e-book format reproduction.

To date, most analyses of the Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) network have focused on qualitative analysis to determine trends and patterns in the group's evolution over time. Seldom has a combination of quantitative tools been used to derive inferences about the nature of the organization and its changing strategy. In this paper, the author draws on a combination of geospatial analysis and social network analysis in order to explore how the network has changed over time in response to efforts from local and international security forces to disrupt it. The analysis enables the community of interest to draw conclusions with regard to the resiliency of the network and its long-term goals in the Sahel region. Evidence indicates that AQIM is evolving into a less dense but more ethnically diverse organization that is rapidly restoring the operational capacity it lost during the 2013 French intervention in Mali. Despite major Western military efforts to suppress it, AQIM is increasingly able to conduct spectacular attacks across west Africa, further destabilizing an already precarious security environment. The study concludes with recommendations for crafting a strategy tailored to degrading and containing the threat from AQIM and its affiliates.

I. INTRODUCTION * A. OVERVIEW * B. BACKGROUND * C. RESEARCH QUESTION * D. STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS * II. BACKGROUND * A. INTRODUCTION * B. THE ALGERIAN CIVIL WAR AND THE GIA * C. THE TRANSITION FROM GSPC TO AQIM * D. THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SAHELIAN AFFILIATE NETWORK * 1. AQIM Sahelian Units * 2. Malian Jihadist Groups * 3. Ansar Al-Dine * 4. Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa * 5. Al Murabitun * 6. The Macina Liberation Front * E. THE MALIAN UPRISING AND FRENCH INTERVENTION * F. CONCLUSION * III. LITERATURE REVIEW * A. LITERATURE ON AL-QAEDA IN THE ISLAMIC MAGHREB * B. THEORIES OF NETWORK RESILIENCE * C. CONCLUSION * IV. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY * A. SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS * B. GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS * C. DATA * D. BOUNDARY * E. CONSIDERATIONS * V. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS * A. INTRODUCTION * B. TEMPORAL AND GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS * C. SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS * D. CONCLUSION * VI. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS * A. CONSIDERATIONS * B. KINETIC AND NON-KINETIC APPROACHES * VII. CONCLUSION