U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis

Business & Finance, Economics, Money & Monetary Policy, Macroeconomics
Cover of the book U.S. Consumption after the 2008 Crisis by Jaewoo Mr. Lee, Pau Rabanal, Damiano Sandri, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
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Author: Jaewoo Mr. Lee, Pau Rabanal, Damiano Sandri ISBN: 9781452746289
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Publication: January 15, 2010
Imprint: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Language: English
Author: Jaewoo Mr. Lee, Pau Rabanal, Damiano Sandri
ISBN: 9781452746289
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication: January 15, 2010
Imprint: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Language: English
U.S. household consumption declined sharply in late 2008, marking a departure from the trend of a steady increase in U.S. consumption as a share of income since the 1980s. Combining econometric and simulation analysis, we estimate that this departure will be sustained beyond the crisis: the U.S. household consumption rate will likely decline somewhat further from its current level, as the saving rate rises to around 6 percent of disposable personal income (from nearly 5 percent in 2009). Compared to the pre-crisis years (2003–07), this saving rate implies a decline in U.S. private-sector demand on the order of 3 percentage points of GDP.
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U.S. household consumption declined sharply in late 2008, marking a departure from the trend of a steady increase in U.S. consumption as a share of income since the 1980s. Combining econometric and simulation analysis, we estimate that this departure will be sustained beyond the crisis: the U.S. household consumption rate will likely decline somewhat further from its current level, as the saving rate rises to around 6 percent of disposable personal income (from nearly 5 percent in 2009). Compared to the pre-crisis years (2003–07), this saving rate implies a decline in U.S. private-sector demand on the order of 3 percentage points of GDP.

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