Tetlock and Gardner’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Summary

Business & Finance, Economics, Planning & Forecasting, Management & Leadership, Decision Making & Problem Solving
Cover of the book Tetlock and Gardner’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Summary by Ant Hive Media, Ant Hive Media
View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart
Author: Ant Hive Media ISBN: 9781311366443
Publisher: Ant Hive Media Publication: April 23, 2016
Imprint: Smashwords Edition Language: English
Author: Ant Hive Media
ISBN: 9781311366443
Publisher: Ant Hive Media
Publication: April 23, 2016
Imprint: Smashwords Edition
Language: English

This is a Summary of Tetlock and Gardner’s New York Times Bestseller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Available in a variety of formats, this summary is aimed for those who want to capture the gist of the book but don't have the current time to devour all 352 pages. You get the main summary along with all of the benefits and lessons the actual book has to offer. This summary is not intended to be used without reference to the original book.

View on Amazon View on AbeBooks View on Kobo View on B.Depository View on eBay View on Walmart

This is a Summary of Tetlock and Gardner’s New York Times Bestseller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Available in a variety of formats, this summary is aimed for those who want to capture the gist of the book but don't have the current time to devour all 352 pages. You get the main summary along with all of the benefits and lessons the actual book has to offer. This summary is not intended to be used without reference to the original book.

More books from Ant Hive Media

Cover of the book Michael S. Hyatt & Daniel Harkavy’s Living Forward: A Proven Plan to Stop Drifting and Get The Life You Want Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Crystal Paine's Say Goodbye to Survival Mode Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book David McCullough’s John Adams | Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Amy Cuddy's Presence: Bringing Your Boldest Self to Your Biggest Challenges Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Jim Collins' Good to Great Why Some Companies Make the Leap … And Others Don’t Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Jim Paul's What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Anders Ericsson and Robert Pool’s PEAK Secrets from the New Science of Expertise | Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Gillian Flynn’s Dark Places Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Simon Sebag Montefiore’s The Romanovs 1613: 1918 | Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Sejal Badani's Trail of Broken Wings Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Joshua Foer’s Moonwalking with Einstein The Art and Science Of Remembering Everything | Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Barrett & Allison's Trim Healthy Mama Plan: The Easy-Does-It Approach to Vibrant Health and a Slim Waistline | Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book David Perlmutter’s Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth about Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar--Your Brain's Silent Killers Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Dr Josh Axe’s Eat Dirt: Why Leaky Gut May Be The Root Cause of Your Health Problems and 5 Surprising Steps to Cure It | Summary by Ant Hive Media
Cover of the book Ta-Nehisi Coates’ Between The World And Me Summary by Ant Hive Media
We use our own "cookies" and third party cookies to improve services and to see statistical information. By using this website, you agree to our Privacy Policy