Hidden Dragon, Crouching Lion: How China's Advance in Africa is Underestimated and Africa's Potential Underappreciated - Emerging Markets, Mineral Resources, BRICs

This monograph is part of the Advancing Strategic Thought Series precisely because its topic is so important. As it stresses, the explosive growth of China's economic interests in Africa is arguably the most important trend in the continent's foreign relations since the end of the Cold War. China-Africa trade passed the $1 billion mark in 1990, jumped to $10 billion in 2000, and accelerated again, increasing 15-fold in a little over a decade to $150 billion in 2011. China's rapidly expanding ties with Africa catapulted China past the United States in 2010 as Africa's top trading partner. The author predicts that by 2020, China's projected expansion of trade, investment, and development assistance is likely to secure economic and political influence for Beijing in Africa that at least rivals, if not surpasses, that enjoyed by Europe and the United States over the last 150 years.

Moreover, as the monograph emphasizes, China's quest to build a strategic partnership with Africa must also be seen in the broader context of the central strategic objective of Beijing's foreign policy: promoting the peaceful rise of the People's Republic of China (PRC) as a global superpower. What China is now consolidating in Africa is just one part of a broader network of global alliances that support not only Beijing's putative leadership in the developing world, but its emerging role as a global power rivaling the United States. A cornerstone of China's strategy is also the recognition that its national security ultimately depends on a strong, internationally competitive economy. With this in mind, China increasingly turns to Africa not only for resources to fuel its development, but also for markets to sustain its growing economy and ultimately support its longer-term aspirations to surpass the United States as the world's preeminent power.

An important but secondary theme of this monograph is that Africa has become an attractive trading partner for China not only for its natural resources, but as a growing market. Africa's rapid growth since 2000 has occurred not just because of higher commodity prices, but, more importantly, because of other factors, including improved political governance, macro-economic stability, microeconomic reforms, increased globalization, urbanization, an expanding labor force, and a rising middle class. Mr. Brown argues that China has been at least 10 years ahead of American firms in strategic perceptions and thinking about Africa's economic promise. While many in the West remain Afro-pessimists, he says, the Chinese have been guarded Afro-optimists or, perhaps more accurately, Afro-realists who recognize both the continent's great promise and significant risk.

In addition to the China paper, this unique collection of American military documents provides a special view of recent Chinese military and policy developments. Contents: China Shaping the Operational Environment - A Disciple on the Path of Deception and Influence * The "People" in the PLA: Recruitment, Training, and Education in China's 80-Year-Old Military * China's Maritime Quest * The PLA At Home and Abroad: Assessing The Operational Capabilities of China's Military * Arms Sales To Taiwan: Enjoy The Business While It Lasts * China's Role In The Stabilization Of Afghanistan * The Coming of Chinese Hawks * Turkey and China: Unlikely Strategic Partners. This ebook also includes the annual U.S. intelligence community worldwide threat assessment in Congressional testimony by Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr.