Asian Development Outlook 2017

Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge

The annual Asian Development Outlook analyzes economic performance in the past year and offers forecasts for the next 2 years for the 45 economies in Asia and the Pacific that make up developing Asia. Most regional economies saw recovery propelled last year by higher external demand and rebounding global commodity prices. These factors will likely continue to support growth this year and next despite rebalancing in the People's Republic of China and tepid recovery in the advanced economies. Risks to growth stem from uncertain policy directions in the advanced economies, including an anticipated tightening of US monetary policy. While short-term risks appear manageable, spillover to capital flows and exchange rates require monitoring. Decades of rapid growth lifted most of developing Asia from low- to middle-income status. Sustained growth to escape the middle-income trap must come largely from improved total factor productivity, which is achieved by fostering entrepreneurial innovation and investing in human capital and infrastructure. The difficult transition from middle to high income further demands a sound institutional framework and policy environment anchored on macroeconomic stability. Developing Asia's dynamic yet sure-footed track record indicates that it can transcend the middle-income challenge.